Editor's note: The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
Where there are butts in seats, there is money to be made. With virtually the entire country on quarantine right now, movie studios are trying to figure out some way to recoup the losses that will inevitably come to the film industry during this time. After a few scant delays a few weeks back, Universal is the first major player to take a step beyond delaying their films: starting Friday, March 20th, “The Invisible Man", “The Hunt” and “Emma (2020)” will be available via various home video demand services to rent.
That’s right, one of the most successful horror films of the year, an acclaimed period comedy, and a spitfire social satire are heading to homes long before their original digital releases. This is it folks, the death of the movie theater!
…except it clearly isn’t. While this decision has sparked numerous think pieces and tweets about the death of the communal cinema going experience caused by COVID-19, they all seem to be fundamentally overlooking a crucial part of this development: what these films are.
“The Invisible Man” is a film with a budget of $7 million that has grossed over $100 million. In other words, it made back its money and then some. Therefore, there’s no financial hit if Universal decides to put it on demand early. Meanwhile, “Emma (2020),” while acclaimed, was likely never going to find huge box office success, so therefore it releasing on demand early isn’t very surprising either. Then there’s “The Hunt,” a tone-deaf and idiotic quote-unquote satire that, given critical response and box office numbers, likely will make more money on home release than it would at the box office anyway.
These are three films that make logical sense to release this way because they’re small potatoes, low profile releases. Want further proof? If Universal was so convinced that COVID-19 and the movement of social distancing would irreparably damage the theater industry, then they would have back peddled their November delay for the upcoming Bond film “No Time To Die” and their year long delay for the new “Fast and Furious” movie. Plus, their only other on demand title they’ve announced, “Trolls World Tour,” is still releasing in theaters as well as hitting home demand on the same day.
Meanwhile Disney has just announced delays for a swath of projects: “Black Widow", “The Woman in the Window", “Mulan (2020)", “Antlers”, “The New Mutants” (again), and while not yet delayed, “Artemis Fowl” is likely next on the chomping block. Why not just drop these on Disney+, you’re probably wondering? Well, compared to the three smaller profile films Universal dropped, these Disney films are: two billion dollar releases with “Mulan” and “Black Widow”, two smaller budget and profile horror goldmines in “Antlers” and “The New Mutants”, and while not guaranteed, “Artemis Fowl” and “Woman in the Window” are likely sleeper hit hopefuls. If anything, they’re the likeliest for a Disney+ surprise release. You can’t even use “Trolls World Tour” remaining in theaters as an argument because, while it would’ve still made a chunk of money if delayed, it isn’t a surefire billion dollar hit like a Marvel sequel or Disney remake.
However, there are still plenty of films that have yet to be touched regarding this. Paramount hasn’t said anything about its upcoming SpongeBob sequel “Sponge on the Run” or any other films apart from “A Quiet Place Part 2” and “The Lovebirds.” Sony has only delayed one film, “Peter Rabbit 2” and its only until August. What we’re seeing isn’t studios pulling films and revaluating the theatrical market: we’re seeing studios pull films, setting them as “TBD” and then releasing them likely the month that the COVID-19 virus backs off.
Why else would a company like Disney, with two major billion dollar films set their releases as TBD? Why else would Warner Bros. wait this long and still not announce a delay for “Wonder Woman 1984” from its June release date? Those previously mentioned films like “Sponge on the Run” are set to drop in June or July. The reason almost no other films of large or small scale have been delayed is because these other studios are simply hoping they don’t have to.
While unprecedented, the banner of “TBD” is a safety precaution, allowing studios not to get tied down to a specific date. So, Disney can drop “Mulan (2020)” and “Black Widow” the moment they’re able to. Its also why they won’t be caught dead dropping these billion-dollar films on Disney+. Because as long as there are multiplexes with thousands of seats in them, studios will try to fill them, and wait as long as it takes to do so.
This swath of early digital releases isn’t because these studios are your friends: its because there is money to be made. And if they can make it with films already on their way out of the box office (like the just announced for early digital “Birds of Prey”), they’ll soak up as much as possible while they’re quarantined as well.
Photo courtesy of The New York Times
